India is facing a delicate diplomatic challenge as tensions rise in the Middle East amid the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. According to geopolitical analyst and author Michael Kugelman, New Delhi must carefully navigate the crisis to protect its strategic partnerships, energy security and long-standing foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy.
Speaking to India Today TV, Kugelman explained that India’s position is complicated by its strong relationships with several key players involved in the region, many of whom are geopolitical rivals.
He noted that maintaining a balanced stance has always been central to India’s foreign policy, but the current crisis makes that approach increasingly difficult.
India–Israel partnership grows stronger
Over the past decade, India has significantly strengthened its relationship with Israel, particularly in defence cooperation. As India modernises its military, it has increasingly relied on Israeli defence technologies, including advanced air defence systems.
Kugelman said this growing partnership highlights why India must be cautious in its diplomatic messaging during the ongoing conflict.
He also pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Israel came shortly before the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iranian targets, underscoring the deepening strategic ties between New Delhi and Tel Aviv.
Developments such as Operation Sindoor have further reinforced defence cooperation, with Israeli technology playing a key role in helping India counter drone and missile threats from Pakistan.
Gulf partnerships remain crucial
At the same time, India maintains strong economic and political ties with Gulf nations within the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
These relationships are critical not only for India’s energy needs but also for the welfare of millions of Indian citizens working in the region.
Kugelman said the volatile nature of the conflict means India must tread carefully, given the potential impact on energy supplies and the safety of Indian nationals living in the Gulf.
Iran still part of India’s regional strategy
Although India’s energy trade with Iran has declined in recent years, particularly after New Delhi reduced imports of Iranian crude oil, Tehran continues to play a role in India’s broader regional strategy.
Kugelman said that despite reduced economic ties, India and Iran maintain a historically friendly relationship, adding another layer of complexity to India’s diplomatic calculations during the conflict.
Energy security concerns emerge
The conflict is already beginning to affect India’s energy landscape. Reports suggest the country is facing shortages of commercial liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), prompting the government to invoke provisions of the Essential Commodities Act to prioritise domestic supply and boost production.
While nearly 70 percent of India’s fuel imports now avoid the Strait of Hormuz, around 90 percent of LPG shipments still pass through the critical maritime route, leaving India exposed to disruptions if the conflict intensifies.
Economic pragmatism in foreign policy
Amid these geopolitical challenges, India has also moved to ease restrictions on Chinese investment in certain sectors, including electronics and solar manufacturing.
The Union Cabinet recently relaxed foreign direct investment rules for Chinese companies, a move Kugelman described as a reflection of India’s “strategic pragmatism.”
He noted that the warming of relations between India and China had already begun prior to the Middle East crisis, citing the 2024 border agreement and discussions about restoring direct flights between the two countries.
Strategic autonomy faces a major test
As tensions in West Asia continue without a clear resolution, India’s diplomatic balancing act will become increasingly challenging.
Kugelman said the coming months will reveal whether New Delhi can successfully maintain its policy of strategic autonomy while managing relationships with competing global partners during one of the most volatile geopolitical crises in recent years.
Originally published on 24×7-news.com.
