Israeli Strikes Push Iran’s Khamenei into Uncharted Crisis as Leadership Wavers
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, long a resilient figure through decades of sanctions, unrest, and global isolation, is now facing the gravest challenge of his rule. Unprecedented Israeli military strikes have shaken the foundation of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, placing Khamenei and his regime under enormous internal and external pressure.
At 86, Khamenei is already presiding over a system where succession is a growing concern. With recent assassinations of top military leaders and speculation over attempts to target him directly, analysts warn that the clerical establishment may be nearing a breaking point.
High Stakes and Vulnerability
According to US sources, former President Donald Trump once rejected an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei. While the current Israeli administration has not confirmed such intentions, it hasn’t ruled them out either. The possibility has heightened fears over regime destabilization, especially as internal power factions struggle for influence during the twilight of Khamenei’s reign.
“Khamenei is no longer fully in command. What we’re witnessing is a fast-moving unraveling of centralized control,” said Arash Azizi, senior fellow at Boston University. He noted the ongoing conflict is speeding up a process of fragmentation that was already in motion.
Regime Change or Miscalculation?
Some analysts suggest Israel may be attempting to trigger a shift from within Iran’s power structure—either through covert support for an internal coup or by targeting the leadership directly to create instability.
Karim Sadjadpour from the Carnegie Endowment described Khamenei’s position as a “self-inflicted dilemma,” warning that he lacks the stamina and strategic adaptability to lead Iran through a modern conflict. “A weak response undermines his authority. A strong one might collapse the regime entirely.”
Strategic Missteps
Jason Brodsky, director of United Against Nuclear Iran, observed that Khamenei’s longstanding strategy of avoiding direct conflict with Israel and the US may now be unraveling. “He’s always avoided war on Iranian soil. That strategy has collapsed,” said Brodsky.
Khamenei, who survived a 1981 assassination attempt, is drawing on past experiences. But the scale of this conflict, say analysts, is of an entirely different magnitude.
Domestic Unrest Looms
While widespread protests have not erupted, opposition sentiment is growing. Some Iranians are expressing discontent through social media and diaspora broadcasts, though experts caution against assuming a mass uprising is imminent.
Netanyahu has floated the possibility of regime change, suggesting that the Iranian people—if empowered—would overthrow their rulers. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi echoed similar hopes, calling on Iranians to “stay strong.”
Still, observers like Azizi warn against overestimating the opposition’s readiness or unity: “There’s no concrete path from today’s crisis to regime change driven by popular uprising.”
In summary, the Israeli strikes have not only escalated regional conflict but also forced Iran’s leadership, especially Ayatollah Khamenei, into a precarious corner. The choices made in the coming weeks could determine not just the future of Iran’s governance—but the broader balance of power in the Middle East.
