Gold Prices Poised to Cross USD 4,000 as Goldman Sachs Predicts Strong Global Rally

New Delhi: Gold prices are on track for a major rally, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the yellow metal could soon surpass USD 4,000 per ounce, supported by strong institutional and private investor demand, rising central bank purchases, and robust inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

At present, gold is trading near USD 3,937 per ounce on the international market — a sharp rise of nearly 47% this year. In India, domestic gold prices have surged to about ₹1.21 lakh per 10 grams, reflecting the global uptrend.

Goldman Sachs: “Highest-Conviction Long Commodity”

In its latest Precious Comment report, Goldman Sachs’ Commodities Research team reaffirmed gold as its top long-term investment choice, calling it the “highest-conviction long commodity” in the current market environment.

The report noted that gold has broken out of its earlier range of USD 3,200–3,450 per ounce, gaining around 14% since late August. The bank attributes this surge to three main drivers:

1. Rising Western ETF holdings – indicating renewed interest from institutional and retail investors.
2. Stronger central bank demand – following a brief seasonal slowdown.
3. Speculative positioning – though modest, suggesting a broader structural shift toward gold.

Outlook: $4,000 by Mid-2026, $4,300 by December 2026

Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to its earlier forecasts of USD 4,000 by mid-2026 and USD 4,300 by December 2026, stating that the rally could accelerate faster than expected.

In September alone, Western gold ETF holdings jumped by 109 tonnes, far surpassing the 17-tonne rise predicted by the model based on lower US interest rates. This surge indicates that investors are actively diversifying away from traditional assets like US Treasuries amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The report observed:

“Even a small diversification move from private US Treasuries into gold can trigger a large leg higher in prices because the gold market is relatively small in size.”

Central Banks and Investors Fuel the Momentum

Goldman Sachs analysts say that structurally higher central bank buying and private sector diversification will continue to drive gold demand in the medium term.

The report also highlights gold’s unique role as a portfolio stabiliser, especially in periods of equity market volatility and rising inflation. Investors are increasingly viewing the metal not merely as a growth hedge but as a strategic asset for risk management.

The Bigger Picture

With inflation concerns persisting, global interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions high, gold’s traditional status as a “safe-haven asset” has returned to the forefront of global markets.

As demand surges across institutional and retail segments, experts believe the psychological barrier of USD 4,000 could soon be tested — marking a new chapter in the metal’s long-term bull run.