Dubai, March 9: The stage is set for the Champions Trophy 2025 final, where India will take on New Zealand in a highly anticipated rematch from last Sunday. India remains the only unbeaten side in the tournament, while New Zealand has battled their way through all four venues, gaining invaluable experience. Historically, New Zealand has troubled India in ICC events, but India has turned the tide in recent encounters, winning their last six ODIs against the Kiwis, including three in ICC tournaments.
Selection Dilemmas for Both Teams
Heading into the final, both teams face one key selection call. India must decide whether to replace wrist-spinner Kuldeep Yadav with an extra seamer, which could leave them without a key option to challenge New Zealand’s left-hand-heavy batting order. Meanwhile, New Zealand faces a decision on Will Young, whose form has dipped after his century in the tournament opener. They might consider bringing in Devon Conway to add more depth and stability.
Dubai Pitch Report: A Test for Batters and Bowlers
This final will be played on the same Dubai wicket used for the India-Pakistan clash earlier in the tournament. The pitch has been slow and slightly two-paced, assisting both spin and seam. Batters who have shown patience and adapted to the conditions have managed to score runs.
A key trend in Dubai has been the influence of spinners—whichever team’s slow bowlers performed better has generally won the match. While the pitch offers some turn, it is not a rank turner, making disciplined bowling crucial.
India’s spinners have excelled at bowling fast and straight, a combination that has proved lethal in Dubai. Deliveries projected to hit the stumps have averaged 20.59, compared to 53.23 for those missing the stumps. Similarly, balls delivered above 90 km/h have been more effective than slower ones.
Spinners in Dubai – Champions Trophy 2025
| Criteria | Wickets | Average | Strike Rate | Economy Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balls hitting stumps | 17 | 20.59 | 28.7 | 4.30 |
| Balls missing stumps | 13 | 53.23 | 64.5 | 4.95 |
| Balls > 90 kph | 16 | 25.50 | 33.3 | 4.60 |
| Balls < 90 kph | 14 | 45.21 | 56.6 | 4.79 |
Matt Henry vs India’s Top Order: A Crucial Battle
New Zealand pacer Matt Henry has been a thorn in India’s side in past encounters, particularly in Powerplays. With 10 wickets in 11 innings at an average of 20.20 against India, Henry has troubled key batters like Virat Kohli (2/57), Rohit Sharma (2/59), and Shubman Gill (2/62).
His success stems from hitting a good length and getting movement off the pitch. However, Rohit Sharma has looked to counter Henry aggressively in their recent meetings, scoring 33 off 18 balls while hitting three sixes.
India’s approach in Powerplays has been to go hard early, but given Henry’s effectiveness with the new ball, they might take a more cautious approach before accelerating later in the innings. Adding to the suspense, Henry’s availability is in doubt after injuring his shoulder in the semifinal.
Spin Challenge for India’s Middle Order
New Zealand’s spin duo, Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell, have been highly effective throughout the tournament, and their battle against India’s middle order will be crucial.
Virat Kohli, India’s leading run-getter in the tournament, has struggled against left-arm spin in recent years. Since 2022, Kohli averages only 26.80 against left-arm spinners, with a strike rate of 73 per 100 balls. Santner has dismissed him thrice in ODIs, restricting his scoring to a strike rate of just 69.49 across 259 balls.
In the group-stage clash, India was rescued by a crucial partnership between Shreyas Iyer and Axar Patel after an early collapse. Both players have been aggressive against spin, with Iyer scoring 126 runs and Axar striking at 94.36 in the tournament. Their ability to maneuver against Santner and Bracewell could be key in neutralizing New Zealand’s spin threat.
India Batters vs Spin – Champions Trophy 2025
| Player | Inns | Runs | Balls Faced | SR | Dismissals | Average | Dot % | Boundary % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Gill | 2 | 42 | 69 | 60.86 | 1 | 42.00 | 44.9 | 1.44 |
| V Kohli | 3 | 113 | 153 | 73.85 | 2 | 56.50 | 39.8 | 3.26 |
| SS Iyer | 4 | 126 | 175 | 72.00 | 2 | 63.00 | 50.8 | 5.71 |
| AR Patel | 4 | 67 | 71 | 94.36 | 2 | 33.50 | 42.4 | 8.45 |
Can Rachin Ravindra Anchor the Innings?
Rachin Ravindra has been in sublime form, trailing only Ben Duckett as the tournament’s highest run-scorer. However, in the previous clash against India, his early dismissal allowed India’s spinners to strangle the right-handers in the middle overs, limiting scoring opportunities.
If Ravindra can stay longer at the crease, it will force India to adjust their spin attack, possibly disrupting their bowling plans.
New Zealand’s Fielding: A Big Advantage?
New Zealand has been the best fielding side in the tournament, boasting a catch efficiency of 91.1%, significantly ahead of India’s 75.0%. Their fielding excellence was on full display against India in the group stage, with athletic catches and sharp ground fielding playing a crucial role.
Fielding Performance – Champions Trophy 2025
| Team | Matches | Catches | Drops | Catch Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 4 | 31 | 3 | 91.1% |
| South Africa | 3 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% |
| Australia | 3 | 16 | 5 | 76.1% |
| India | 4 | 21 | 7 | 75.0% |
With India’s occasional lapses in the field, New Zealand could capitalize on any small margins, making fielding a decisive factor in the final.
Final Showdown: Who Will Prevail?
With both teams bringing distinct strengths, the Champions Trophy 2025 final promises to be a thrilling contest. India’s dominant record against New Zealand in recent matches and their superior spin attack give them an edge, but New Zealand’s experience, well-balanced squad, and superior fielding make them a formidable opponent.
Can India continue their unbeaten run and claim the trophy, or will New Zealand turn the tables and secure their first Champions Trophy title? The answer awaits in Dubai.
