No Drastic Change in River Flows to Pakistan Post-Treaty Suspension, But Uncertainty Grows
Amid the diplomatic fallout following the Pahalgam terror attack, several viral posts on social media have circulated conflicting claims: some suggest rivers in Pakistan are drying up, while others accuse India of triggering floods by releasing excess water. However, official data and satellite imagery tell a different story.
An investigation by India Today’s OSINT team, using satellite images and data from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority, reveals that water flow in the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers—allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—remained consistent through April.
For instance, the Chenab river, recorded at 22,800 cusecs at Marala Dam (Pakistan) on April 24—the day India announced suspension of IWT obligations—actually increased to 26,268 cusecs by April 30. Similarly, the Jhelum river’s flow at Mangla Dam showed only a marginal dip from 44,822 to 43,486 cusecs over the same period.
Supporting this, satellite images from the European Space Agency show no significant change in water volume upstream at India’s last control points—Uri (Jhelum), Baglihar (Chenab), and Nimoo Bazgo (Indus)—or at the first Pakistani dams downstream.
Why Control Isn’t Easy
Geoanalytics expert Raj Bhagat emphasizes that India currently lacks the infrastructure to block or divert these river flows, especially without large, storage-capable dams. “It’s impossible to stop waters of the Western rivers at present,” he noted. The only ongoing Indian project with storage capacity is the Pakal Dul hydroelectric project.
Moreover, topography challenges, environmental risks, and seismic activity make it extremely difficult to construct the necessary infrastructure to reroute river flows.
Unpredictability Is the Real Threat
Though water is still flowing, Pakistan’s long-term vulnerability has increased. Without regular data sharing from India—as required under IWT—Pakistan’s irrigation, agriculture, and flood response systems face significant uncertainty.
According to environmentalist Himanshu Thakkar, diverting or impounding river water in this ecologically fragile region could cause landslides, floods, and glacial lake outbursts, posing risks beyond the geopolitical realm.
The Indus river system supports over 152 million Pakistanis, and its stable flow is crucial for farming, electricity, and water security. Experts warn that even without immediate flow disruption, the treaty’s suspension introduces strategic unpredictability that could affect millions.
