n a serious escalation of military rivalry in East Asia, Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has raised alarms over China’s growing air combat edge, stating that Beijing now has the means to deny U.S. air superiority within the critical First Island Chain — the region encompassing Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Admiral Paparo revealed that China now produces fighter jets at a 1.2 to 1 ratio over the United States, a strategic advantage amplified by its rapid development of fifth-generation aircraft and long-range air-to-air missile systems.
China’s Air Power Expansion
According to the admiral, China currently operates 2,100 fighter jets and 200 H-6 bombers. Its fleet of advanced J-20 stealth fighters now exceeds 200, and development of two sixth-generation aircraft — the J-36 and J-50 — is underway, with flight testing already in progress.
Paparo emphasized that China’s aggressive military modernization, including space and missile domains, is reshaping the balance of power. “China is outproducing the United States in air, missile, maritime, and space capability,” he said.
Air Superiority: No Longer Guaranteed
Air superiority has long been the cornerstone of U.S. military strategy, enabling dominance in conflicts from Iraq and Afghanistan to recent operations in the Middle East. However, China’s expanding arsenal and fortified infrastructure are changing that reality.
Admiral Paparo cautioned that unlike past wars, the U.S. might no longer achieve sustained control of the skies in a future conflict with China. Instead, fleeting “windows” of superiority may be the best achievable outcome.
“Neither side will enjoy air supremacy,” Paparo admitted. “My mission will be to contest Chinese air power and protect forces across the First Island Chain.”
China’s Hardened Air Bases: A Game Changer
A report by the Hudson Institute, titled Concrete Sky, highlights how China has built over 3,100 aircraft shelters, many of them hardened to withstand missile strikes — more than double the number from a few years ago.
In contrast, U.S. air bases in the Indo-Pacific remain largely unprotected, leaving jets vulnerable on the ground. Simulated war games suggest that up to 90% of U.S. aircraft losses in a conflict with China could happen before takeoff, due to insufficient base fortifications.
Strategic Implications
With the PLA’s ability to strike quickly and deny air access, China could cripple American response times and damage vital logistics in the region. This puts U.S. forces and allies — especially Taiwan — at significantly increased risk.
The admiral called for urgent investment in readiness, resilience, and capability: “Deterrence is our top priority — but deterrence without the credible ability to fight and win is hollow,” he warned.
As China continues to scale up its air power and defense infrastructure, U.S. policymakers face a pivotal challenge: closing the readiness gap before deterrence turns into confrontation.
